I am an odds player. This alone is one of the biggest reasons for my success in life in all the areas in which I have really accomplished something. I always go out of my way to do those things which are the most statistically likely to do well for me regardless of my personal feelings or Societal Programming regarding those actions.

Monogamy is statistically likely to limit my sex life and increase the amount of drama I will experience down the road. So I refrain from doing that, regardless of what society says, and have open/poly relationships instead. Result: massively increased sex, minimal drama, and significantly increased happiness.

Having a corporate job is statistically likely to bore me to death, suck out my soul, and stunt my long-term income growth. So I refrained from doing that, regardless of what society said, and started my own businesses instead. Result: massively increased income, personal freedom and happiness.

When I start a business, I focus only on those activities most likely to make me money, regardless of how interesting or exciting I think they are. Those two activities are marketing and innovation, just as I talk about in my primary lifestyle book. I don’t focus on things like technical aspects, business cards, polishing my widgets, and other things most business owners focus on, because these things are far less likely to make me money than marketing and innovation. Result: a six-figure income by age 27 starting from nothing, and a large six-figure location-independent income today that only requires a few hours per week to maintain.

When I settled down with a woman, I knew that doing it the standard, societally-approved way (monogamy, traditional marriage, combining finances, etc) would likely cause me massive financial, logistical, and emotional problems down the road. So I refrained from doing that, regardless of what society said, and had an OLTR Marriage instead, where I’m allowed to have sex with other women whenever I want and all of my finances are 100% protected in case of divorce. Result: massive peace of mind, sexual freedom, and what is, at least so far, a marriage that is an emotional and sexual dream come true.

When I walk into a Vegas casino, I ignore all the slot machines and all the table games, regardless of how fun they look (and I’m sure they are fun). Those are statically likely to cause me to lose money. Instead, I focus only on the blackjack tables, and even then, only the certain types least likely to cause me to lose. Then I play blackjack not the way I want, but the way that is most statistically likely to make money for me. Result: I’ve made thousands upon thousands of dollars in pure profit playing blackjack.

When I invest my money. When I travel to other countries. When I go on a first meet with a woman. When I buy a house. When I raise my children. When I go to bed at night. When I use TRT. When I negotiate with a new client. When I spend time with my wife. When I write a blog post. In everything I do, I examine the odds carefully before acting, then I only do those things most likely to give me the results I want even if society says I should do something different (which it usually does since society does not want you to become successful nor happy).

It’s not always easy. Sometimes my emotions want me to do things that are not likely to create the results I want. But I do it anyway. The result is that I’ve experienced moderate to massive success in literally every area of my life except one (and I’ll get that one nailed eventually).

This might seem like a robotic way to live. In some ways I guess it is. But the results and success you get by living this way more than make up for this. I live a life that is so amazing in every way that if you described my typical, day-to-day life to myself 20 from years ago, I wouldn’t believe a word of it, even the financial part, and I was pretty sure 20 years ago that I would do well financially in the future. I’m the happiest man I know. Trust me, that’s more than worth a little “robotic” seeming behavior patterns, the vast majority of which no one even knows I’m doing except for me.

Another slight downside is that I can’t do a few things that I would find interesting. Just a few. For example, I’d love to have a motorcycle or two because they look fucking amazing. I’ve been on one a few times and it was great, but I don’t like the odds. You’re 37 times more likely to die on a motorcycle than in a car and nine times more likely to be injured. Since the odds of you getting into a car accident over the course of your life are damn near 100%, I sadly have to refrain from getting a motorcycle.

This is okay, because I can still experience the speed and excitement of a motorcycle in other ways that have much better odds, such as roller coasters and jet skis. I’m also going to jump out of an airplane this year or next. The odds of doing this are just fine (only 0.0007% chance of dying from a single skydive, well within the 2% Rule). So if you’re just a little creative, these minor limitations aren’t really limitations at all.

Playing the odds in all areas of life is such a huge part of my success and happiness that I would be doing you a disservice if I didn’t tell you to do the same thing. In everything you do, do the following:

1. Stop, pause, and think before you act. (This alone is something many adults can’t do, as comments on blogs and social media clearly indicate.)

2. Do a some research and determine the actions which provide you the highest odds of getting what you want even if you personally and/or emotionally disagree with those things or think they would upset your friends or family. The only two rules are that it must be legal and it can’t hurt anyone. (It also can’t violate your personal Code, for those of you who have read The Unchained Man. For example, part of my Code is that I can’t lie.)

3. Then act, and only do those things, even if it feels weird, and even if you think society, your mom, or your friends will not approve. They probably won’t. (So what? Fuck them!)

4. Enjoy massive success and happiness.

It’s that simple.

Not easy, but simple.

I can’t recommend it enough.

Merry Christmas.

I’m coming to a town near you in 2019 to do the least expensive Alpha Male 2.0 seminar I’ve ever done. I’ll be in 18 different cities in the USA, Australia, Canada, and Europe. If you want to come to a low-cost seminar to learn how to improve your financial and woman life, click HERE and get your tickets! The next cities coming up are Dallas, Houston, and Brisbane!

Alpha Male 2.0 World Tour 2019

61 Comments on “Playing Life’s Odds

  1. Given that my area of expertise is investment related, I couldn’t agree enough with this article.

    Over the years, I’ve developed a very strict set of rules regarding decisions I make for myself and clients. Several times, I am tempted both by emotions and pressure from impatient clients to act outside of these. I don’t relent and though on some occasions I would have profited had I done so, more often than not I’m glad I stuck to the criteria.

    Good one.

  2. Dear BD,

     

    Question : Doesn’t Palimony (with a ‘P’) exist if one is in an LTR with a woman, even if not married?  The court still decides that the woman is owed something from the man.

  3. Many thanks Caleb as you helped me to change my life for the better in a very short span of time in 2018. I am planning my 2019 year, very excited for the great things coming!

    I am aware of my personality and emotions play a big part in my decisions. Being aware of it is great as now I am working on my weaknesses and enhancing tje qualities of being an ENFP.

    Thanks again for this amazing year and a happy and healthy Christmas for you and your family!

  4. BD,

    Playing the odds and removing emotion make logical sense, sure.

     

    But how does one know if they have calculated the odds correctly?

  5. BD Do u think life is a game and your country/state/city government leaders create the rules of game and can change rules of game just like they change laws? Type of rules they create can affect the culture and determine how easily men and women and people in general can get along? If the U.S changed rules into more Latin America rules regarding sex/relationships it would be easier for men and women to vibe and have fun with each other in United States right? Lol

  6. Merry Pitmas to you !

     

    <img src=”https://i0.wp.com/wallstreetdealmaker.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/merry-e1545377252671.jpg?resize=150%2C210&ssl=1″ />

  7. Hi,Blackdragon Im a daygamer and Im 24 i already fucked 58 girls,all of them hb7+.
    I want to get an Mltr with a woman 35 years old +.Do you think,if i go and fuck 20 girls over 35,and get them to lock in phase,i have chances to find a submissive ,low drama woman over 35.Or because im this young,my chances of finding a girl like that are too small ,because they will be only Dominants?
    Have you seen relationships where there is a big age gap between an older woman and an younger man,where the man is Alpha 1.0 or Alpha 2.0?Or a relationship like that is fantasy,or very hard to achieve?

  8. I read in your other blog that regarding certain life areas, you’d rather err on the side of caution when calculating the 2% rule (for example, breaking the law). Mind sharing other examples of your life regarding this?

  9. But how does one know if they have calculated the odds correctly?

    I’d say it boils down to diligent research and previous experience for the most part. And even at that you can never be 100% certain of any decision as there’s always the slight chance some 2% factor screws up things.

    With your due diligence done and sufficient experience, you should do just fine overall

  10. BD,I like freaks,sluts, “dangerous women”,tattoed emo girls. If I keep my frame and dont get oneitis,and because i have the balls to soft next everytime and hardnext a girl like that.Do you think i can make one of these girls a high end Mltr?Obiouvsly,i will not get down on her and i will always use a thick condom.

    Do you think there are some big downside to a girl like this and i should avoid making her a high end mltr,or if i keep frame and im careful with my health ,it can work?

    High mltr(no rules,only i treat her almost like a gf)

  11. Doesn’t Palimony (with a ‘P’) exist if one is in an LTR with a woman, even if not married?  The court still decides that the woman is owed something from the man.

    In many jurisdictions, yes, of course.

    This is avoided by an enforceable cohabitation agreement, not available in all jurisdictions.

    Many thanks Caleb as you helped me to change my life for the better in a very short span of time in 2018. I am planning my 2019 year, very excited for the great things coming!

    Glad I could help!

    how does one know if they have calculated the odds correctly?

    Calm, rational, objective research. That doesn’t include “going with your gut” or asking your best friend or taking advice from a single forum comment or YouTube video, etc, etc.

    BD Do u think life is a game and your country/state/city government leaders create the rules of game and can change rules of game just like they change laws? Type of rules they create can affect the culture and determine how easily men and women and people in general can get along?

    I would state it differently but sure. I would also add that there are 196 “games” in the world (countries) and you can pick the one you hate the least. Also, if you want to take a certain amount of time and effort (and most men don’t or won’t) you can also pick and choose which games you’re a part of (Five Flags).

    So it’s not a simple as being “stuck” with one game. The Alpha Male 2.0 has a high degree of control over which game he chooses to play.

    If the U.S changed rules into more Latin America rules regarding sex/relationships it would be easier for men and women to vibe and have fun with each other in United States right?

    Not necessarily. Cultural values (ASD, puritanism, provider hunters, etc) would not change just because the laws changed.

    BD what do you think of this video?

    I only watched the first 2 min. He’s either stupid or purposely engaging in clickbait. You can’t fuck the one woman who is totally focused on getting a multi-millionaire husband therefore never cold approach any hot girls? WTF?

    Im a daygamer and Im 24 i already fucked 58 girls,all of them hb7+.
    I want to get an Mltr with a woman 35 years old +.Do you think,if i go and fuck 20 girls over 35,and get them to lock in phase,i have chances to find a submissive ,low drama woman over 35.

    Sure. I found a woman like that who was 35 (Pink Firefly). Putting in the numbers works. You just need to be very patient, and it may take a year or two.

    Or because im this young,my chances of finding a girl like that are too small ,because they will be only Dominants?

    As I said above. If you’re patient it will come.

    Have you seen relationships where there is a big age gap between an older woman and an younger man,where the man is Alpha 1.0 or Alpha 2.0?Or a relationship like that is fantasy,or very hard to achieve?

    I have never seen this, but very few men or women seek out a relationship like this in the first place. If it’s something you want badly and you put in the effort I think it’s possible.

    I read in your other blog that regarding certain life areas, you’d rather err on the side of caution when calculating the 2% rule (for example, breaking the law). Mind sharing other examples of your life regarding this?

    Off the top of my head:

    – Breaking the law

    – Driving recklessly (even though I think “I’ll be fine because I’m a good driver”)

    – Having sex with women in Africa

    – Motorcycle

    – Lying to my customers

    – Having sex with buddies / co-workers wives

    I like freaks,sluts, “dangerous women”

    Oh, so do I… but only as FBs.

    If I keep my frame and dont get oneitis,and because i have the balls to soft next everytime and hardnext a girl like that.Do you think i can make one of these girls a high end Mltr?

    No. (Unless you don’t mind drama.)

    Find a girl like that with maybe 60% less insanity and give that a try.

  12. a good one for my musicsl aspirations. apparently im more likely to get struck by lightning than become president.

  13. BD,

     

    This is avoided by an enforceablecohabitation agreement, not available in all jurisdictions.

     

    Is there an article with a list of these?  I take it any big US metro is out of the question (and thus part of your rationale to leave the US in 2024).

  14. Is there an article with a list of these?

    The research behind such a thing would be incredible, so not that I’m aware of.

    I take it any big US metro is out of the question

    You can quickly determine this in your city with a 20 minute phone call to a local family attorney.

  15. I only watched the first 2 min. He’s either stupid or purposely engaging in clickbait. You can’t fuck the one woman who is totally focused on getting a multi-millionaire husband therefore never cold approach any hot girls? WTF?

    He’s essentially saying (my understanding) only approach women who give you affirmative signals that they are interested in you first. His point with the millionaire is that once a woman decides (1) her type and (2) which guy among the guys available best meets that criteria, it’s over and you shouldn’t even bother approaching. So, at a club, if a woman isn’t checking you out and licking her lips in your direction or whatever, then don’t even bother. She’s already scoped the place out and decided you’re not her cup of tea.

  16. This is avoided by an enforceablecohabitation agreement, not available in all jurisdictions.

    The problem being EVEN IF it’s enforceable, that might not stop her from vexiously litigating you anyway.

    My actual divorce property settlement was exactly what I expected.  What I wasn’t expecting was that the actual process is what killed me.

    And that’s the secret of anything that goes to litigation. They beat you to death with the process.

    Always remember, any legal document is only worth the paper it’s written on IF the other party doesn’t want to agree and litigate the difference.

    I’m not saying this a jaded divorced guy.  I’m saying this as someone who has spent most of his professional career parsing legal documents.  I’d never recommend that a client enter any sort of agreement where they took the worst of it.

    Talk about playing the odds.  Sometimes your best option is to not play.

  17. So, at a club, if a woman isn’t checking you out and licking her lips in your direction or whatever, then don’t even bother. She’s already scoped the place out and decided you’re not her cup of tea.

    And that’s the stupidest pickup advice I’ve ever heard. I had sex with several super hot 18 and 19 year-olds via daygame who weren’t checking me out at all when I met them at a mall. There are tons of night game guys who have had sex with hot women at clubs who weren’t checking them out first.

    To repeat, that guy is either shockingly stupid or (more likely) he’s trying to drum up clickbait views by trying to be controversial.

    The problem being EVEN IF it’s enforceable, that might not stop her from vexiously litigating you anyway.

    My actual divorce property settlement was exactly what I expected.  What I wasn’t expecting was that the actual process is what killed me.

    And that’s the secret of anything that goes to litigation. They beat you to death with the process.

    Of course that could happen. Men doing this should have several thousand dollars set away to account for the possibility that your OLTR wife may (stupidly) attempt to contest the enforceable paperwork (and fail). I did.

    Talk about playing the odds.  Sometimes your best option is to not play.

    Absolutely, as I’ve told numerous PUAs who live in California who want to get married.

    Insanity.

  18. And that’s the stupidest pickup advice I’ve ever heard.

    Yeah, my initial reaction was that I disagreed, mainly because I’ve had so many great experiences utilizing it IRL (I didn’t know it was called “cold approach” at the time).

    But I wanted to get your take on it.

    Also, the “have sex with a woman twice” rule…is it okay if you have sex with her twice within a few days? Like, I know for fb/fwb you say only see them once a week, but is it okay to break this rule if we’re trying to get to the lock in point?

    And also, because you have a lot of experience decoding what women mean vs. what they say, what does it mean, if a woman you’re intimate with says that they feel strangely comfortable with you? Does this mean they think you’re a beta or something?

  19. I’m not saying that it’s impossible to cohabit with a woman.  I’m just functionally impossible to get this through the heads of men full of NRE and SP.

    I loved being married and I’d like to try it again!  Right up to the point where I remember being low key homeless and living in my car for several months as a result ofof the after effects years later of a California divorce.

    But to anyone who’s suffering from enough cognitive dissonance to think that they are gonna be different different because they have that one special girl or whatever you are wasting your time.  They aren’t detached enough from their “good feelings” to be objective about anything, even if they are the hardest ENTJ/INTJ sort.

    You have to make these decisions and plan accordingly when you aren’t involved with a woman. This is precisely why BD is successful – so far.

    One thing that confuses me, if you don’t think she’s “the one” or your “forever girl”, why in the hell are you marrying her in the first place? Just save yourself the trouble and don’t do it!

  20. And that’s the stupidest pickup advice I’ve ever heard.

    Indeed.  I am surprised someone would even post a video like that, as though it was worthy of discussion.

    Many times, the very act of approaching a woman (in the daytime) itself is what makes her attracted to you (the confidence and ‘taking the lead’ traits demonstrated by the approach itself).  I am not even that good at it, yet have still experienced this many times. I mean, you have to look good at the time, but still, the approach is its own DHV.

    This stupid video reminds me of the ‘anti-Game’ pickup advice that a lot of Game-denialist incel nuts were spouting on about over the years.  They could not even see how many instances of cognitive dissonance there were in their ‘system’. They also could not answer a simple question of ‘What aspects of a what makes a man attractive to women, are learnable skills, or otherwise in your control?’

     

  21. BD and Any1 else
    Could you give rankings of which cities in U.S have Women with most ASD vs Least ASD top 5 for each. City culture has to have an effect right. Pretty sure Women in Las Vegas and New Orleans(Mardi Gras boobs exploited) have lot lower asd on avg than women in Portland or New York right? Lol

  22. Also, the “have sex with a woman twice” rule…is it okay if you have sex with her twice within a few days? Like, I know for fb/fwb you say only see them once a week, but is it okay to break this rule if we’re trying to get to the lock in point?

    The rule doesn’t apply prior to Lock-In, so yes.

    And also, because you have a lot of experience decoding what women mean vs. what they say, what does it mean, if a woman you’re intimate with says that they feel strangely comfortable with you? Does this mean they think you’re a beta or something?

    Possibly.

    This stupid video reminds me of the ‘anti-Game’ pickup advice that a lot of Game-denialist incel nuts were spouting on about over the years.

    And I think this anti-game stuff is going to increase over time as Western men fall further into childification, surrender and despair.

    AWESOME. More for me.

  23. He’s essentially saying (my understanding) only approach women who give you affirmative signals that they are interested in you first.

    That’s still a cold approach. You’re approaching chicks who have no previous knowledge of you. Sure you should see if the chick appears approachable but still.

    And the comments on that video are straight up degeneracy. Never seen so much “muh hypergamy” degeneracy in my life. Seriously, grow a set and quit fantasizing about things going back to the middle ages when no one had any real personal opportunity.

    This stupid video reminds me of the ‘anti-Game’ pickup advice that a lot of Game-denialist incel nuts were spouting on about over the years.  They could not even see how many instances of cognitive dissonance there were in their ‘system’. They also could not answer a simple question of ‘What aspects of a what makes a man attractive to women, are learnable skills, or otherwise in your control?’

    That’s because a majority of incels are collectivists, and collectivists have no real concept of playing life’s odds, they just want everything to be exactly the way they want it. Incels, SJdubs, and other collectivists have no real concept of thinking about things objectively and make a catastrophe out of everything. Like BD says, they enjoy being mad and salty. And people like the guy who made that video have no shame in milking these types for views.

    From here on in, I’m only trusting four individuals for chick advice: BD, Squattincasanova, Sonny Arvado, and JMULV. Those four are pretty much the only people who I see having actual love and sex lives with chicks who aren’t meh or unattractive. No one else can prove otherwise.

  24. It was in the context of explaining why we became intimate so quickly (not really, it was the 2nd date at their place)…and no, I didn’t ask.

    I did fall asleep there (was tired from work)…even though I left really early.

    Maybe that’s why

  25. So, it’s not very often I call Caleb out on something as being absolute nonsense.  His comments regarding playing blackjack as a profitable venture over time is that rare topic, and it’s absolute nonsense.

    I say this as someone who has gambled professionally (I played cash poker) for many years.  In fact, had it not been for that skill I acquired by reading books, I would have been broke twice in the period from 2007-2010 when the economy collapsed and my straight business lost 60% of its volume overnight.

    Specifically, I played limit Texas Holdem at several of the legal card barns in SoCal you’ve seen on TV.  I don’t have my ledgers handy, but I vividly remember paying taxes on 17,000 in winnings that I earned over five months on a $5000 dedicated bank roll.  Yes, I kept records and yes I netted my expenses against that number.  I had a couple of losing weeks and had one month that was positive by less than $100, but on average I beat the game over an extended period of time.

    I was a skilled player that was able to beat the game, on average, for roughly 2bb/hr playing stakes around 10/20.  The more hours I played, the more money I made.  In this case, I played 425 hours, 30 hours a week.

    Which is where I call bullshit on Caleb and his blackjack strategy.

    As soon as you start winning, stop playing, cash in your chips, and go home. 

    So much as you think you are playing blackjack as an advantage player, what you are actually exposing is how much variance is in every gambling game.

    Your strategy requires you to get lucky and quit, because (as you know) even a perfect blackjack strategy on the most advantageous table is only returns roughly 99% of your original bet, over time.  Given that you play $25 a hand, and assuming you play 50 hands an hour, your expected value  is:

    $25*50 hands/hr*99%= -12.50 per hour loss

    Why I’m stating this is because the law of large numbers is a law, and not a suggestion.  Eventually it will catch up to you.

    https://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/lawoflargenumbers.asp

    What Caleb is showing, in no uncertain terms, is actually how lucky he’s been!  His win rate is not sustainable for any extended period of time.  Sooner or later the deck cools off and his win/loss rate will revert to the mean.  Eventually he will put it all back if he keeps playing.

    And this goes to Caleb’s larger point about the 2% rule, and particularly motorcycles.   It’s bullshit.  His chance of dying is .00073% which is way lower than 2%, last time I checked.  I’m not gonna drag him for his life choices, but he’s not exactly walking the 2% walk either.

    As an OT aside, lest anyone get starry eyed and decide that gambling is a glamorous career of easy fun, heed these warnings:

    After I moved out of SoCal, one of the casinos started messing with RFID, facial recognition, and player rewards cards to create a working database of who was in the $500 buy in no limit game.  Then they got hacked and someone spread it on one of the big gambling forums.  What was most disturbing was of the 500 or so regular players, exactly three were beating the game, two others were breaking even, and everyone else was losing.  You will likely not be one of those three. You are likely to be chum.
    My win rate was improved by finding the softest games running.  That made my personal life on Friday and Saturday and Tuesday evening (plus the 1st and 15th) nonexistent.  Plud, you get to be around some of the dregs of humanity, gambling degenerates who are only outclassed by people who frequent off track racetrack betting.
    If you enjoyed playing poker as a profitable hobby before you started, you will quickly lose that joy as it becomes a job.  I referred to the casino as “the office”.  Not only that, you will start to hate your customers who you have to be nice to (because the last thing you want to do is run off some sap who’s bleeding chips because it reinforces his negative self image that he’s a loser in life, but if he keeps at it because he has hope he can get lucky someday).  Plus a lot of them stink.

    Lastly, I work in a risk based financial job right now.  Caleb is downplaying the backside of odds, which is sooner or later you are gonna get hit with the small end even if you always have the best of it.

    The reason why I am good at my job and was good at gambling for a living is because I expect to lose from time to time.  The problem becomes when you get on the opposite end of one of those heaters Caleb manages to catch.  You can get unlucky and run bad for an extended time.  Way longer than you think is possible.  It’s in the nature of playing with odds.  And, unlike “everything in your life is your fault” how it turns out is NOT up to you.  Being outcome indifferent helps, but having a good mental attitude doesn’t really help if you are broke from running bad.

    The trick of beating the odds game in life is to keep playing with best practices.  Buckle up, it can get bumpy.

  26. Most of those blackjack arguments were made here and I responded to them in great detail back then; I’m not going to respond to them again, nor can you compare blackjack to poker (entirely different game, entirely different math) nor your experiences with poker to mine with blackjack. If you think I’m lying or you think I’m just magically lucky, that’s perfectly fine with me.

  27. BD, what you described regarding blackjack is in essence the martingale betting system and it does not work. Quitting once you’ve won more than you’ve lost has the problem that sometimes you are going to lose the entire bankroll you allocated for the game, and such losses have the mathematical expectation of surpassing your winnings unless you found a particularly dumb casino.

    But who cares, as those are nowhere near your major earnings or losses in life I’m sure.

    Regarding the general idea of playing the odds, are you familiar with Nassim Taleb’s works, specifically the concept he calls “the ludic fallacy”?

  28. Getting back to the original topic of this thread :

    BD, one aspect of playing the odds and focusing on value-added tasks is time management.

    I have a problem where I know I would reach all of my lofty goals if I were able to work 14 hours/day productively on them.

    Yet, I can’t.  I sit in front of the computer with the intention of working, but get distracted with a million other distractions, and have done an embarrassingly low amount of productive work that day.

    This only breaks when I am afraid or accountable to an outside party.

    Is there a way to become more productive through the techniques you use to only do things that are likely to work (i.e. hard work) while managing to not get distracted by the unproductive distractions? In other words, can the ethos of stripping out emotion and just doing the things that have better odds, apply to correcting this situation?

  29. I’m not going to respond to them again, nor can you compare blackjack to poker (entirely different game, entirely different math) nor your experiences with poker to mine with blackjack.

    I’m going to press my “luck”, because the facts are squarely on my side.

    First off, I took my quote from that article.  Those are your words.  That article is wrong.

    Second off, you are wrong about them being different.  While poker is a game of skill (like golf or pool), blackjack is strictly a game of chance (luck) with an optimization strategy.

    But at their core, they are both gambling games (the deck being the randomizer) with a known expected value.  There’s luck involved (the deck)  If you think about it, the only difference between negative expectation roulette (EV = -5.67%) and Blackjack is blackjack is a slightly less bad game (EV= -0.5%).  In fact, you point this fact out:

    This is the first of many blog posts where I will talk about what I do, what I don’t do, why 99% of people lose at blackjack in the long run, including the computer models.

    You are wrong here too.  EVERYONE loses at blackjack in the long run because it’s a negative expectation game. You will too eventually.

    If you think I’m lying or you think I’m just magically lucky, that’s perfectly fine with me.

    I dont think either are true.  You certainly aren’t lying and you aren’t magically lucky.  Because gambling is a game of luck, you are just on the right side of variance (another fancy name for luck), and I guarantee you at some point the other side bites back.  From your cite:

    Once I’m up, if I lose two hands in a row, I immediately stop, 

    Anybody see the problem?  I’ll narrow it down:

    Once I’m up

    This is the core fallacy with your strategy.  It requires you to run good right off the bat.   You know, “luck”.  There is no core competency here to get your system started, you have to catch a couple of hands straight away.

    If you continue your strategy, over time, you will have a series of sessions that open for a loss to whatever your maximum pain threshold is before you quit.  I’m assuming that’s around six to eight bets, but that’s not important.  Eventually it will even out.

    I am also a net winner in blackjack and craps (almost the same EV).  Difference is I know that the math of EV doesn’t discriminate, I was on a heater, and I quit while I was ahead.  Never to return.  You aren’t a better player than I am.  The reason I quit is I learned EV and quit wasting my time (time management)

    If you sit down and play blackjack for a long time, you will lose. 

    Thats correct!  But you are fooling yourself to think that you ARENT playing for a long time.  Just because your sessions are short and your trips to the casino are many does not make you immune to the law of large numbers.  You are just mechanicing your exposure so it doesn’t feel like a long time.  But those sessions are cumulative, and the law of large numbers is coming for you.

    I think gambling is a harmless hobby.  What you are doing is fine by me (not like you’d care anyway).  But to explain how you use a negative EV gambling for a side income (which it is, just for the casino) in an article called “Playing Life’s Odds” (which is trying to encourage people to do EV positive activities) is not making the point you think it is.

    This particular article is not your best work because it’s not intellectually honest with facts.  As a user here and one of your paying customers, I’m disappointed.

    Also, If someone wants to geek out on EV calcs, here’s the cite:

    https://www.casino-games-online.biz/probability/expected-value.html

    I apologize to anyone who’s annoyed at me for being so persistent in this topic.  I have built a livelihood around legally making risk adjusted EV calculations, and take the topic very seriously.

  30. joelsuf,

    BD, Squattincasanova, Sonny Arvado, and JMULV. 

    What are the websites of the other three?  I have never heard of them.

    Krauser had many videos of him having sex with 9s or higher.  He took them down, for obvious reasons.

     

  31. C Lo,

    And this goes to Caleb’s larger point about the 2% rule, and particularly motorcycles.   It’s bullshit.  His chance of dying is .00073% which is way lower than 2%, last time I checked. 

    It is no secret that the accident fatality rate for Motorcycles, per mile is many times higher than cars (which is not all that low, with 40,000 death/year in the US alone).

    Again, we are talking about rate per miles driven.

  32. Is there a way to become more productive through the techniques you use to only do things that are likely to work (i.e. hard work) while managing to not get distracted by the unproductive distractions?

    Chapter 11 of Calebs book “The Unchained Man” is titled “How to Effectivley Manage Your Time”, and addresses this exact problem.

    At $7 it’s a steal at 100x the price.   Literally every man should read it.

     

  33. It is no secret that the accident fatality rate for Motorcycles, per mile is many times higher than cars (which is not all that low, with 40,000 death/year in the US alone).
    Again, we are talking about rate per miles driven.

    Correct. There were roughly 5400 fatalities involving motorcycles in the US last year.

     I added this cite to my original post and it got consumed ( with all my careful formatting) for some reason:

    https://www.iii.org/fact-statistic/facts-statistics-motorcycle-crashes

    The fatality rate in motorcycles is roughly 40x higher than automobiles, but at 40.14 per 100,000,000 miles traveled it is far less than the BD established threshold of 2%.  Which was my point.

    Still, there are certain risks you just aren’t interested in taking on.  I don’t care how safe it is, having spent several hundred hours behind the dash of a single engine airplane, there is no circumstance where I am ever going to parachute out for recreation reasons.  Sure, it’s safe!  I’m just not doing it ever.

    Likewise, I’m still jaded divorced guy and I’ve decided that I’m never going to subject myself to another divorce.  I guarantee my odds go to zero because I decided I’m never getting married again.  Likewise, I’m going to not do any activities that potentially subject me palimony, common law marriage, or child support issues (I had a vasectomy but I get it checked every couple of years because, you know, the law of big averages), or that OLTR marriage that BD subscribes to.

    So I understand BDs desire to just not take certain risks, but he’s also selectively utilizing the 2% rule to justify doing certain activities and ignoring it in other situations.

    I ride a bicycle a few thousand miles a year (road and mountain).  I didn’t do it when I was married and had extended family responsibilities, but now that’s all gone, I bought an extended disability policy at work, and I go ride to my hearts content.  I get it.

     

  34. The fatality rate in motorcycles is roughly 40x higher than automobiles, but at 40.14 per 100,000,000 miles traveled it is far less than the BD established threshold of 2%.

    The 2% rule is one thing.  Doing something that has a 40x greater risk of fatality than the mainstream, easily available option makes sense, even if it is not a ‘rule’.

    The chance of dying from a lifetime of motorcycle riding may be under 2%, but that doesn’t mean one should do it when a 40x safer alternative is widely used.

     

  35. BD, I searched for the words “drink” and “alcohol” and neither are found on this page. I have thought through your success, and I ascribe a fair bit of it to you being a teetotaler.

    Alcohol is an insidiously marketed addictive poison. There is a high chance, sometimes very high chance, of negative outcomes when one drinks.

    I quit drinking today. One of my female BJJ friends, an asexual, invited me for a hike today with one of her friends. I was too hung over to go. I looked at the Facebook page of the friend she took, and she was cute, young, and single. Stupid. So fucking stupid.

    Merry Christmas!!!

  36. The 2% rule is one thing.  Doing something that has a 40x greater risk of fatality than the mainstream, easily available option makes sense, even if it is not a ‘rule’.

    Why stop there?  Why not ride a train, it’s even safer.  Or play any other casino game that’s also a guaranteed loser for the player?  At what point is an activity safe enough?  Isn’t that the point of the 2% rule?

    From here:

    http://blackdragonblog.com/2013/12/22/the-2-rule/

     

    If a particular negative result has a less than 2% chance of occurring, don’t worry about it. Don’t even think about it. Proceed.

  37. Regarding the general idea of playing the odds, are you familiar with Nassim Taleb’s works, specifically the concept he calls “the ludic fallacy”?

    Never heard of ludic fallacy, no.

    Is there a way to become more productive through the techniques you use to only do things that are likely to work (i.e. hard work) while managing to not get distracted by the unproductive distractions?

    Like someone else said, I have an entire chapter on that in The Unchained Man.

    BD, I searched for the words “drink” and “alcohol” and neither are found on this page. I have thought through your success, and I ascribe a fair bit of it to you being a teetotaler.

    And zero drugs. Yes, my lack of both drugs and alcohol are absolutely factors in my success, true. As I’ve said many times, drugs and alcohol make your goals harder to achieve.

    Why stop there?

    I don’t stop there. I follow the 2% Rule. My odds of dying in a car accident are far less than 2%, therefore I use cars.

    Why not ride a train, it’s even safer.

    Because a train would not get me to where I need to go. My house, for example.

    Your arguments in this thread are getting silly. It’s Christmas, man. Calm down.

  38. What are the websites of the other three?

    Squattin casanova = pickupalpha.com

    JMULV (Former member of RSD who got kicked out because the RSDers were getting jealous) = ultimateseductionsystem.com

    Sonny Arvado = strengthbysonny.com

    Merry Christmas =)

  39. Your strategy requires you to get lucky and quit, because (as you know) even a perfect blackjack strategy on the most advantageous table is only returns roughly 99% of your original bet, over time.

    I kind of agree with that, it all depends on rate of play, bankroll and risk of ruin. Even playing slot machines can be profitable if you are disciplined enough. But be

    Even if you are counting cards in blackjack, there are still elements of randomness especially if it is more than two decks.

    This is why BD was calling blackjack a “profitable hobby.” It isn’t a job or anything for him. Because he has multiple incomes and tracks his numbers very closely in blackjack, BD can make blackjack profitable for him even he isn’t playing perfectly positive rounds (positive rounds meaning playing only when the true count is 2 or higher, and with a perfect knowledge of basic strategy and deviations).

  40. If so, do add Taleb’s The Black Swan to the reading list.

    To summarize the concept of the ludic fallacy in a couple of words, it’s about failure to take into account that not only there’s a probability of the undesirable outcome, there’s also the possibility that your calculation of said probability is dead wrong; and in general trying to apply game theory to things it does not apply to.

    Is there a greater than 2% probability that you have erroneously applied the 2% Rule to something you should not have ignored? : )

  41.  Even playing slot machines can be profitable if you are disciplined enough

    No casino game is profitable outside of 1) you getting lucky or 2) being an advantage player like Phil Ivey was a few years back.  That didn’t end well.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-25/poker-pro-ivey-loses-card-cheating-case-at-u-k-top-court

    This is why BD was calling blackjack a “profitable hobby.”

    Except it’s not profitable.  At best it’s a slight loser.  You should see BDs winnings chart in the other thread.  They are exponential.  Not sustainable.

    His results will revert to the mean over time if he continues to play.

    Back before they put RFID in the chips and track your action 100% accurately, there was a strangely wild gambit where you’d call a big casino, get ahold of the host, let them know you were coming, wire in like $20k to the cage, and proceed to go pretend to play big but slow the action way down to like 12 hands per hour by extended bathroom breaks, taking cell phone calls away from the table, etc.  Then you’d look for the pit boss to pay attention, when he was you’d crank up the bet in front of him till he got distracted then go back to the table minimum.  Palm about 1/3 of your chips in your pocket.  Play for a couple of hours, and make a big stink about how bad you got stuck.  You’d go over to the host and bitch about how bad your luck was, he’d call the pit boss who’d remember the big bets (because he never saw the small ones) and you’d be all set.

    Back then they’d comp you back 1/3 of what they estimated your losses were in booze, restaurant comps, travel, fight tickets, you name it.  Except they thought you were losing a mint so they’d comp you accordingly.

    That guys usual cost was ordinarily about a $100 for a weekend filled with thousands of tax free comps, although sometimes he’d heat up and crush it for a big number.

    Sadly, technology killed all the slight of hand and you can’t do that any more.  Whole town is tight as a drum now.

     

  42. And zero drugs. Yes, my lack of both drugs and alcohol are absolutely factors in my success, true. As I’ve said many times, drugs and alcohol make your goals harder to achieve.

    That you have.

    It seems that when people think of drugs and alcohol, they think mostly of negative effects such as spending money, health effects, and social effects. What is missed is that drugs and alcohol (along with porn, watching sports, and video games) hijack your reward system. Goals are harder to achieve both because of the direct negative effects as well as the reduced drive to get rewards.

    This is probably not enough in your wheelhouse to post about….but Betaization is one of your concerns, and while TMM is a primary beta creator, some mixture of drugs/alcohol/porn/sports/games is another way to create compliant betas.

     

  43. If so, do add Taleb’s The Black Swan to the reading list.

    Will do.

    To summarize the concept of the ludic fallacy in a couple of words, it’s about failure to take into account that not only there’s a probability of the undesirable outcome, there’s also the possibility that your calculation of said probability is dead wrong; and in general trying to apply game theory to things it does not apply to.

    Interesting.

    Is there a greater than 2% probability that you have erroneously applied the 2% Rule to something you should not have ignored? : )

    Most likely. Human fallibility and all that.

    It seems that when people think of drugs and alcohol, they think mostly of negative effects such as spending money, health effects, and social effects. What is missed is that drugs and alcohol (along with porn, watching sports, and video games) hijack your reward system. Goals are harder to achieve both because of the direct negative effects as well as the reduced drive to get rewards.

    Correct. That may very well be part of my problem with eating/losing weight.

    This is probably not enough in your wheelhouse to post about….but Betaization is one of your concerns, and while TMM is a primary beta creator, some mixture of drugs/alcohol/porn/sports/games is another way to create compliant betas.

    Of course, particularly weed, video games, and porn. I’ve mentioned that before.

  44. Taking heed of your advice..

    I’ve adopted a new concept.

    I’m looking for OLTR/ High End MLTR Candidates now who are Alpha 20./ Truly Independent Minded

    The Criteria: 

    – 30 – 40 (HOT ONES)

    – Has had kids ALREADY, maybe even Divorced

    – Open Minded/ NON DISNEY

    Only Catch: I want to be able to state upfront and straightforward that I’m not Monogamous.

  45. CLo:

    I’ve been playing live poker since Black Friday. While I 100% agree with what you’re saying (had considered going pro, but decided against it)…. Why the hell were you a limit pro?

    I imagine your rate/he would have been much better with NLHE. I know a lot of guys that started with limit and couldn’t believe how much more they could make with NLHE.

    I  had one summer where I couldn’t book a winning session better than about $50.  Varience is a bitch and if that was my livelihood I would have been in a really bad spot.

  46.  You should see BDs winnings chart in the other thread.  They are exponential.  Not sustainable.

    I have, and no they are NOT sustainable if he was ONLY playing blackjack. But BD also has at least three different income sources that make it a much more profitable hobby than other hobbies that even rely on events that are not as dependent (bowling and golf to name a couple).

     some mixture of drugs/alcohol/porn/sports/games is another way to create compliant betas.

    I would say that they go one further and create salty omegas as well. Especially when it is combined with social media, comment, and message boards. But yes all of those do indeed hijack the brain’s reward system. Other stuff does too. A LOT of stuff on the internet messes with a person’s reward system.

    You’ll know when you’re interacting with a guy who watches nothing but that stuff, the awkwardness is palpable and sweet christ are they uncomfortable to be around.

  47. Well, first of all, people don’t always know the odds of success of a given path. That’s half the battle.

    Secondly, there is high-risk, high-reward plays. Some that trend toward profitable long term. People are generally risk averse in general, to the point of not taking WINNING propositions.

    Three, there are risky plays that have no true cost. Hitting on women, swinging for that huge business/ job opportunity, taking public speaking classes, etc.

    Four, your are evidence/ data based but people might misconstrue to think you’re doing the “safe” move. It’s “safe” to get a masters in accounting or get a law degree from a prestigious university, pump out 2.5 kids, etc. But is “safe” or “what the masses say” the good way? Usually not.

    Finally, on Blackjack. You can win at Poker in Casinos (off other players). But Blackjack? I don’t think there are ANY tables in Vegas that give odds to the player. The more favorable odds are at the higher stakes tables, but even playing perfect basic strategy, they give a slight edge to the casino (0.005%) — because they don’t enjoy having a broken ATM. You can have an edge — but you must at the least have a basic card counting strategy. Abuse it enough, I assume they have a system that finds you. If it’s small balls money (a few hundred) across different branded casinos, maybe they won’t care, but I can’t say that for certain.

  48. I would say that they go one further and create salty omegas as well.

    A joke I heard a loooong time ago: “You tell me how fast Superman can fly. I’ll tell you what a vagina feels like!”

  49. BD, you are purely irrational regarding blackjack, which is very surprising regarding your overall very rational personnality. Anyway, my dayly job somehow consists in profiting from people’s irrational behavior, so I need people like you to make money. Keep going.

    You talk about the importance of marketing, in this post. Any resource to suggest (ideally, books) regarding marketing for beginners ?

  50. BD, you are purely irrational regarding blackjack, which is very surprising regarding your overall very rational personnality.

    Based on my results over many years, the only argument you could make on that topic is that A) I’m lying about all this or B) I personally have some kind of magical, supernatural luck power every time I walk into a casino that can’t be explained by mathematics or science. I know I’m not lying, and I find B far less than 2% probability, so…..

    But like I said, I’ve already said everything about this over at my other blog and I’m done debating it.

    You talk about the importance of marketing, in this post. Any resource to suggest (ideally, books) regarding marketing for beginners ?

    Start with Guerilla Marketing by Jay Conrad Levinson.

  51. Just noticed someone already called you out on the blackjack and you appear to be in denial so I’m editing this. There are tons of people out there who claim they are winning slots players as well haha.

    So the obvious question then, is why have you wasted so much time and energy on all these businesses, when you could be making millions consistently beating high stakes blackjack games?

    It really is odd that you think this when it’s literally a statistical fact that this cannot be done and this article is all about using statistical facts to guide your decision making. You shouldn’t have ever played a single hand if you paid attention to the facts here and stuck the the one and only game that can be beaten in a casino, which is poker.

    If you HAVE won so far, then yes, you have gotten lucky and you simply have not played enough hands. Again, not an opinion, a statistical fact.

  52. So the obvious question then, is why have you wasted so much time and energy on all these businesses, when you could be making millions consistently beating high stakes blackjack games?

    1. I would not enjoy blackjack as a full-time vocation. It’s fun as a part-time hobby only (at least for me).

    2. I don’t have enough casinos in my local area to support a full-time blackjack “job,” (especially if I ended up being banned from any of them down the road as I improved my card counting skills) and I’m unwilling to move to somewhere like Vegas.

    Now, if I already lived in a place like Vegas or Macau, and planned on staying there for the long-term, then I would play a lot more blackjack on a regular basis than I do now, and with the intention of earning income. (I haven’t played blackjack in about a year; been way too busy).

  53. Why would you never have Sex with a woman in Africa?

    There are Subsaharan African Countries with low Hiv rates, lower even than some US Cities.

    Besides you always use protection, isnt that irrational then to exclude Africa completely?

  54. Why would you never have Sex with a woman in Africa?

    I should have said, “Having sex with women in Africa without a condom.” With a condom I would totally do it in certain regions.

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