Calculating Odds of Success for Online Dating Responses
Today I’m going to list all of the aspects of the women you’re messaging on an online dating site which will affect, positively or negatively, your odds that she will respond to your opener. For this analysis, I have assumed that:
1. Your photos are decent.
2. Your profile text is decent.
3. Your openers follow the standard opener rules (very brief, non-needy, doesn’t compliment appearance, doesn’t get sexual, etc).
The factors listed below are not including the factors that are related directly to you, like your attractiveness or how well-written your profile is. Today we’re only discussing the statistical aspects of the women you’re messaging.
Everything below I have empirically tracked over many years of online dating, both with my own results and the results other men have shared with me. Important note: I am talking here about normal online dating sites, not online dating apps (like Tinder), not sex sites, and not sugar daddy sites. (There is some overlap with these kinds of apps/sites, but there are also significant differences.)
They are not listed in any order.
Here we go:
1. Proximity. If the name of the town or neighborhood on her profile is exactly the same as yours, and it’s spelled the exact same way, odds of response go up.
Interestingly, once the names are different, the odds do not go up or down based on distance. In other words, a woman living in the next town over from you, about 10 minutes away, has the exact same odds of responding to your opener as a woman living in a town 50 minutes away, all other variables remaining equal.
2. Similar age range. If the woman you’re messaging is within seven years, plus or minus, of the age stated on your profile, and you look more or less close to that age, your odds of a response go up. They drop sharply if they’re more than seven, drop even more if they’re more than ten, and drop even more if they’re over 15.
As an example, when I message women under 25 my response rate is often 5% or less, but if I message women in their late 30s, my response rate can easily be 25-35%, depending on the site, the profile text, and the photos that I’m testing.
3. The taller, the better. I’ve mentioned this before. For some reason, women of all ages tend to be more responsive if they’re taller. Shorter women tend to be less responsive. My theory is that the taller a woman is the more confident she tends to be, but that’s only a guess.
4. She’s very cute, but not super hot. This is another interesting one, and many other men have reported this so I know it’s not just me. If the woman you’re messaging is very, very cute, but not super hot, your odds of a response go up. If she’s super hot, they drop slightly. If she’s ugly or mediocre, they also drop, at least slightly. I hate to use the 1-to-10 scale because it’s so subjective, but I’m talking here about women who are around an 8 but not a 9, 10, 6, or 7.
I have several theories as to why this holds true most of the time, but your guess is as good as mine. My best theory is that super-cute-but-not-super-hot women are confident enough you’ll like them, but are not as picky as a ten.
I just know that I always have better response rate chances with hot, but not super hot women.
5. The provider-vibe of the dating site. The more providerish the dating site is, the lower your overall response rates will be. This is because women you find there are provider hunters cruising for husbands or serious boyfriends and are going to be much, much more picky (often to the point of ridiculousness and impossibility).
So your response rates on sites like eHarmony and Match.com are always going to be lower compared to sites like OKCupid or Plenty of Fish.
Side point. As I’ve said before, this dynamic “stacks” with the age difference thing. Women on provider dating sites are going to be even more picky and adamant about staying away from much older (or younger) men than on other sites. To use myself as an example again, I date much younger women via online dating all the time with very little problem, even with low response rates. Yet for the past several years on Match.com, I haven’t been able to get a single date from a woman under 30 no matter how hard I try.
(Now watch this. Now that I’ve said that publicly, the next time I do a blitz on Match.com I’m going to get a date with an under-30 and it will be super easy. Life is weird like that.)
6. Similar race. Obviously, you’ll get better responses from women of the equivalent race. If you’re white, you’ll take a slight hit in response if you message women outside of your race. If you’re non-white, you’ll take a massive hit if you do this. Not only have I seen this with guys all over the world, but OKCupid has also verified this empirically.
This is why whenever a non-white guy asks me for online dating advice, the first thing I tell him to do (after cleaning up his photos) is to first message all the women of his own race first, and then tackle women outside of his race .
Final Thought – Don’t Be a Whiny Pussy
Now listen to me. I gave you the above information to help you. I did not give you the above information to provide more ammo for you to whine like a baby about why you can’t get laid. Stop being a whiny pussy and remember two things:
– Response rates are important, but they aren’t what really matters. What matters is how often you get laid. I almost never get more than 7-8% response rates online, yet I get laid constantly, consistently, and easily, whenever I want.
– Just because a type of woman is of lower statistical response for you, you cannot use it as an excuse to not message her. PUT IN THE NUMBERS, stay outcome independent, and don’t worry about the details. Focus on the group, not the girl. I have had sex with the opposite of all the above stereotypes online many times. I have had sex with plenty of women who were short, or way more than 15 years younger than me, or who were of different races, or who were older provider hunters, etc.
So keep all that in mind. I will be ignoring any comments that whine about how difficult dating or pickup has become. Suck it up, do the right things, and you can still make it work. Millions of men out there are doing just that.
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